New Trends in Energy Demand Modelling

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New societal trends like circular and shared economy can have a large impact on energy consumption and lead to cross-sectoral demand shifts that go beyond extrapolation of presently observed trends. It is expected that these trends are likely to speed up when they are embraced by larger parts of the society. Due to their significant impact, they are already included in the EU climate scenarios. However, much more progress is necessary to enhance their empirical basis and their representation in energy models.

The novelty of this project arises from three perspectives:

  • Thematic perspective: identifying and quantifying how new societal trends affect energy demand, using trend-evolution pathways.
  • Methodological perspective: combining qualitative foresight methods with quantitative cross-sectoral modelling and exploring how energy demand models are to be improved.
  • Data perspective: enhancing the empirical basis for modelling the impact of new societal trends using new data sources and empirical data. 

Several well-established models build the core of this project, one of which (FORECAST Tertiary) is run by TEP Energy. It is used to analyse the impact of the new societal trends like digitalisation, and shared economy in the services sector. Cross-sectoral as well as cross-country specific aspects are in the scope of this work.

Project infos

  • Project duration2020 - 2023

  • Contact at TEP EnergyMartin Jakob und Michael Steck

  • Contracting partyEASME (EU commission)

  • Project partnersFrauenhofer ISI, E3-Modelling IKE, TU Wien, POLIMI, RIC, WiseEuropa, E-Think

  • NewTrends Projectwebsitenewtrends2020.eu

Reference projects

Solar strategy Wädenswil

TEP Energy is conducting a solar strategy and potential study to accelerate the expansion of solar energy in the city of Wädenswil.

Future of Gas Study

TEP analysed the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of buildings of residential and service sector in EU27 countries to model different pathways of fossil fuel substitution.

Ex-post analysis of energy demand 2021

Together with Prognos and Infras, TEP carries out the ex-post analysis of the energy demand of 2021 in Switzerland. TEP Energy is responsible for the services and agriculture sectors.

Country-specific Market Reports for Buildings

Building Market Briefs (BMB) is a Climate KIC initiative within the flagship Building Technologies Accelerator (BTA) that aims to gather and promote knowledge about the buildings' and construction sector to promote low carbon investment and scaling.

Heating Initiative Switzerland

On behalf of the Swiss Heating Initiative (WIS), the decarbonization of the heating sector will be examined by 2050. Spatial potential analyzes and the Swiss building stock model (GPM) are used.

CoolCity

Assessment of the potential for lake water use for heating and cooling in the city of Zurich

Energy-Saving Contracting

Increasing energy efficiency is one of the central pillars of Swiss energy policy and energy-saving contracting contributes to this goal.